Newspoll ALP 51-49 (Greens on 16 primary)
The latest Newspoll is out, with an ALP primary of 35, the Coalition on 42 and The Greens on a record breaking 16. With preferences nominally allocated as they were at the last election, that...
View ArticleDoom or salvation for Rudd Labor?
I continue to be quite surprised at the levels of panic about the Labor party’s current polling predicament, and some of the reactions. The government’s response to the Nielsen poll yesterday was to...
View ArticleWhy Labor may lose the 2010 federal election
This weekend’s seen the latest installment in the ‘media narrative’; demands in The Australian for either a Labor leadership change or a quick cave-in by Kevin Rudd to the mining industry on the RSPT...
View ArticleMedia narrative demands Rudd's head on a platter according to Newspoll timetable
By way of ‘progressing the story’ from Saturday’s round of demands for Kevin Rudd’s political execution from has been Labor figures and mining company director Keith De Lacy, The Australian‘s caravan...
View ArticleEssential Research: A pox on both your houses (and on the media)
In comments on Mr Denmore’s guest post on the interpretation of polls (particularly Newspoll) through the self-referential lens of the ‘media narrative’, I wrote: All quantitative polling tells you...
View ArticleAn August election?
Rumours persist that an early August election will be called early in July. Parliament is only sitting for two weeks, and then won’t return until September. The delivery of valedictory speeches in the...
View ArticleLNP wishes Lilley an unhappy Refugee Week
Andrew Bartlett reports on a disgraceful LNP leaflet distributed in the suburbs of Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley on Brisbane’s northside. Go read.
View ArticlePolls, preferences and the Penrith by-election: Watch this space
One indicator for the question that’s occupying many minds about the likely distribution of preferences from The Greens in a situation where their primary vote increases considerably will be the final...
View ArticleTony Abbott's mental health policy gambit
The political lens has been focused squarely on the government, more or less since the budget way back in May, and the announcement of the RSPT. That’s continued to be the case over the last week with...
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Remember
This is perhaps the first time a piece of Liberal negative political advertising actually worked on me. I had an immediate visceral reaction to it, a surge of anger at Rudd. But then also anger at...
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